Two conflicting views on the near-term future of concerts and live events have emerged in the last few days. This story from USA Today, Concerts were supposed to return this year. Now, it looks like that won't happen until 2022 paints a gloomy picture, suggesting that The Weeknd’s postponement of a major tour and the cancellation of the Coachella and Stagecoach festivals for the second year in a row, mean audiences will have to wait at least another year.
However, according to a story in Variety, Live Nation CEO Michael Rapino sounds much more upbeat about the timeframe for a return to large-scale events. Rapino cited the UK’s four-stage plan for reopening, which allows audiences of up to 10,000 for some outdoor events beginning as soon as May 17, and an end to all COVID restrictions on June 21.
On a call with shareholders last week, Rapino is quoted as saying, “Every day we seem to have a new state or country talking about when they’ll open up, so we’re feeling more optimistic than we were a month ago.” Although he concedes that some states will not be ready to risk large crowds and to make reopening financially viable venues would have to be at 75% capacity, he goes on to say, “Lots of artists are calling, looking at how we start up in July, August, September. So for right now, we still believe we’ll have enough open in the U.K., Australia, Canada, and the U.S. to keep what we have on the books in amphitheaters booked for now.“
According to Mark Ravenhill, president of GLP, Inc, he hasn’t heard anything specifically about the summer, but things are picking up for both indoor and outdoor music events. He says, “Opening dates are still yet to be made by many of the authorities, but there is an anticipation building and so enquiries are being made. I think that performers and their management don’t want to be left behind in the inevitable scrum of activity that will happen.”
Although Ravenhill is finding optimism in the industry for this year, he thinks, “The Summer may be too optimistic, but we will see a higher level of actual performances coming back in the fall. But there are new, positive steps every day and if things continue this way then I think we will see the traditional summer festival period being used to test things out and make sure that all the relevant authorities are happy and can set attendance capacity numbers – and then we will see a robust fall concert touring season along with re-opening of theme parks, theatres and other venues across the country. Well, fingers crossed for that anyway!”
There is certainly an appetite from prospective audiences; Live Nation sold out 70,000 tickets in 48 hours for the British dance music festival Creamfields, which will be held at the end of August, and it is hard to believe that American audiences will be any less enthusiastic.