What happens if a stimulus bill doesn't pass before Nov. 3?
There's both optimism and skepticism over a bill being passed before the November election.
Here are some possible scenarios:
A White House offer is finalized in time and passes: In this best-case scenario, a bill passes both chambers of Congress and is signed into law before Nov. 3. Stimulus checks and other aid would likely begin to go out within weeks.
A White House offer is finalized and fails in the Senate: In this situation, the House could either attempt to pick up the Senate bills, if they pass that chamber, or wait until after the election -- and potentially after the Jan. 20 inauguration -- to revisit stimulus aid, potentially setting back the clock by months.
A White House offer is not finalized in time and talks continue: This scenario is much like above, and would effectively stall a bill earlier than the previous scenario. It's likely that the House would then use this bill as a starting point to push the bill through faster once negotiations revive post-election.
Senate bill passes and the House passes as a last-ditch effort: In the event that the Senate's narrow stimulus bill passes that chamber, the House would have the option to take them up. If they passed, Trump would be able to sign them into law or veto them. It would be likely that Congress would take up another stimulus package after the election regardless.
Talks stop until after the election results are in: If talks don't yield an actionable bill, negotiations could limp along or stop altogether. However, it's likely they'll restart in some capacity immediately after the election and leading into January. It's been speculated that if Trump loses the election and if the Senate loses its majority, there will be little incentive to pass a sweeping package until 2021 during the transition.
Michael T. Strickland
Bandit Lites, Inc.
Chair and Founder